The impact of foreign trade on the packaging and p

2022-07-30
  • Detail

The impact of foreign trade on the packaging and printing industry in 2015

the prospects of China's packaging and printing industry next year also depend on the prospects of China's foreign trade. At the end of the 1970s, the Chinese government, determined to carry out economic reform and opening up, knew that China's economy, which had been impoverished by the continuous political movements in the Mao era, had no domestic demand. Only the introduction of foreign investment and the development of foreign trade could drive this virtually collapsed economy. Therefore, the government has gradually attracted foreign investment and established an export-oriented economic model by giving foreign-funded enterprises super national treatment in tax and other aspects. Especially after 2002, China's foreign trade has developed by leaps and bounds. The extreme prosperity of foreign trade has brought enormous market demand to China's packaging and printing industry. Especially in the eastern coastal areas such as the Yangtze River Delta and the Pearl River Delta, the packaging and printing industry has maintained ultra-high growth for ten years

after the global financial crisis in 2008, China's foreign trade suffered a heavy blow due to the government's economic policy of RMB rising outside and devaluing inside! However, China's real estate foam is more like a huge malignant tumor, which has sucked up a small amount of savings in the hands of fart people. Domestic demand, which is highly expected by many economists, has long been a failure. Even now, China's economy is still inseparable from foreign trade. Therefore, to see the prospects of China's packaging and printing industry next year, we must also look at the prospects of China's foreign trade

There is still a large market space for the development of extruder industry

what is the prospect of China's foreign trade in 2015

2015 China's foreign trade benchmark forecast recently, there was a forecast on China's foreign trade prospects this year, which is roughly as follows:

in 2015, the trade export calculated according to the customs caliber increased by 6.9%, 0.8 percentage points faster than that in 2014; Import growth 5 was 1/6.1% of air density, 3.2 percentage points faster than that in 2014. 2; The ratio of current account surplus to GDP was 2.4%, basically the same as that in 2014

the positive factors affecting China's export prospects in 2015 mainly include: first, the markets of developed economies account for about 50% of China's foreign demand. The gradual economic recovery in these regions will improve the external environment for China's export. The consensus forecast estimates that the economic growth of Europe, the United States and Japan will accelerate by about 0.5 percentage points next year, which is conducive to stimulating China's export growth. Second, the various measures taken by the government to stabilize foreign trade, as well as the opening-up strategy of the Shanghai free trade zone and the expansion of the mainland Yanbian region, will also help promote the growth of exports. However, the labor cost advantage of emerging market economies will continue to show. The shift of developed economies to low-cost countries will curb the potential of China's export growth. In terms of imports, although China's investment growth and international commodity prices may continue to decline next year, the decline is estimated to be milder than this year, which will help to improve China's nominal import growth and return to the normal trend

possible risks of foreign trade export in 2015

it is worth pointing out that the above prediction is only an ideal foreign trade market. Once an event like Russia occurs, China's foreign trade may be lost for thousands of miles. The above main assumptions for the 2015 import and export benchmark forecast include: the economic growth rate of developed countries will rise from 1.8% in 2014 to 2.3% in 2015; The continuity and stability of China's macro policies; The RMB real effective exchange rate was basically stable

if the growth rate of foreign economy is significantly higher than expected, it will help to improve China's export situation. The main downside risks to China's exports include the fact that the US interest rate hike was faster and stronger than expected, the obvious deterioration of the international economic situation caused by geopolitics and other factors, the fact that China has pointed out the direction for comprehensively promoting the adjustment of the national new material industrial structure and the transformation and upgrading of the manufacturing industry, and the obvious appreciation of the international effective exchange rate

Recently, at the national business conference held over the weekend, gaohucheng, Minister of Commerce, said that China had lowered its foreign trade growth target for 2015 from 7.5% this year to 6%

in 2013, China's import and export increased by 7.6% year-on-year, 1.4 percentage points higher than that in 2012, but still lower than the annual growth target of 8% of foreign trade. In 2012, the annual growth rate of foreign trade import and export was only 6.2%, far lower than the 10% target set at the beginning of the year

the foreign trade target in 2014 is about 7.5%, but the growth rate of import and export in the first November was only 3.4%, and there is no hope to achieve the annual target

although Gao Hucheng claimed that the downward trend of China's foreign trade exports in the past two years was the reason for the downward trend of China's foreign trade exports, on the other hand, it can be interpreted that China will continue to maintain the macroeconomic policy of the past few years in 2015, that is, continue to continue the policy of RMB rising outside and devaluing inside. In fact, this policy of the government is inevitable. After all, safeguarding the interests of state-owned enterprises and real estate is also the core interests of the decision-making level

from this point of view, it will be difficult for China's foreign trade exports to improve in 2015. In the case of weak trade in sterile brine injected into the outside, China's packaging and printing industry is not optimistic! Industry bosses must be prepared to cope with the continued cold winter in the packaging and printing industry

Copyright © 2011 JIN SHI